11 The world is complex and the future is open

Please keep in mind that the simulations and scenarios presented in this mini course can only be about developing a sense for the orders of magnitude at stake in the question about which scenarios of decoupling and degrowth are compatible with the remaining carbon budget.

It is also important to keep in mind that the equation CO₂ = CO₂/GDP x GDP is true by definition. But the factors CO₂/GDP and GDP are not independent, but can interact in complex ways.

For example, too slow a decline in CO₂/GDP could force a sudden decline in GDP if environmental disasters bring production to a halt. On the other hand, a particularly sharp decline in CO₂/GDP could be due to a particularly rapid growth in GDP when investments in renewable energy boost economic growth.

However, a rapid decline in CO₂/GDP might also be achieved with lower economic growth if investments in renewable energy go hand in hand with shorter working hours and lower consumption growth. The question of what is realistic and desirable here is beyond the scope of this mini course.

You have reached the end of this mini course on carbon budgets and economic growth. Thank you for reading through, we hope that you found this mini course interesting and that you could learn something along the way.