9 Decoupling or degrowth? Exploring illustrative scenarios
As highlighted by the IPCC and many climate scientists, it would be very desirable to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. But is this target achievable if economic growth continues? And what role does technological transformation have to play in cutting carbon emissions? How long would the carbon budget last in other scenarios?
The following online tool can be used to explore and illustrate these questions in a stylized way. You can use it to create future scenarios by making different assumptions about the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) and rate at which the CO2 intensity of production (CO2 emissions per unit of GDP) falls. You will also be able to select different climate targets and a corresponding carbon budget, as we have done before. The tool is mostly self-explanatory, especially after you worked through the previous sections of this mini course. To get started easily, you can make use of the quick guide and the example scenarios that are available in the app.
Decoupling or degrowth? Scenarios for the 21st century: With this app you can create scenarios for future CO2 emission pathways for various countries, depending on economic growth and the speed of decoupling of economic activity and CO2 emissions.
In the app, you can scroll down to start the Quick Guide and then go through the example scenarios by clicking on the respective link:
After you have done these example scenarios for the world as a whole, you can now repeat them for countries of your choice.
Business as usual scenario
The app introduces the “business as usual” scenario for the world as a whole. In this scenario, the trends of GDP growth and the speed of decoupling (the decline of CO2 intensity) of the last years are extrapolated into the future.
What does business as usual mean in specific countries?: Use the app from above to build a “business as usual” scenario for a country of your choice. Does the scenario seem desirable to you? Does it seem likely?
Stagnation or degrowth scenario
After the “business as usual” scenario, the app introduces the “stagnation” and “degrowth” scenarios to explore how emissions could react to economic stagnation or degrowth at the global level.
What does stagnation or degrowth mean in specific countries?: Use our app to build a stagnation and/or degrowth scenario for a country of you choice. What do you think about this scenario?
Energy revolution scenario
As a third example scenario, the app from above discusses the “energy revolution” scenario. In this scenario, you need to increase the global speed of decoupling so that the carbon budget is not depleted while global trend growth continues.
What would a pure technological decoupling scenario look like for a specific country?: Use our app to build an energy revolution scenario for a country of you choice. Does the scenario seem likely or desirable to you?
Try other scenarios
The scenarios from above set only some illustrative examples. There are many other potential scenarios, many of which might seem more plausible or desirable to you for a specific country. Use the app to try out your own scenarios.
For example, you could try a scenario that involves both, faster decoupling and slower growth. For many countries, slowing growth cannot prevent the need for a massive technological, economic and cultural transformation, in order to speed up the rate of ecological decoupling. Nevertheless, slower growth could potentially have a helpful effect in some countries, especially regarding emission intensive industries. Rich countries in particular could contribute by slowing or reversing growth in these industries and still ensuring high levels of employment, for example by reducing hours worked per person.